Assessing the True Extent of Dual-Use Potential in Satellites Through a Spectrum-Based Classification Model

This thesis explores the growing intersection between civil and military space activities by investigating the concept of dual use in satellites. These systems can serve both commercial and defense purposes. The aim is to move beyond the traditional binary distinction between civil and military missions, by developing a model capable of measuring and classifying the degree of dual use in existing satellite systems. To achieve this, a spectrum-based model was designed through the creation of a Dual-Use Index which allows to estimate the real dual-use potential of a satellite. After defining the problem and reviewing the current policy framework, the typical features of military satellites were analyzed as a benchmark. Based on this analysis, several dimensions were selected to build the index, considering both technical and organizational factors (such as the operator, primary user, mission purpose, sensors and orbital characteristics). Each dimension includes multiple subcategories, each assigned a specific score according to its strategic potential, and a weight reflecting its relative importance in the final formula. The study analyzed satellites launched between 2000 and 2024, resulting in a manually filled Excel dataset, compiled using open-source information from official databases, where each satellite is associated with a final index score ranging from 0 (purely civil) to 1 (purely military), with 0.5 representing perfect dual use. The results indicate that dual-use characteristics are increasingly common, especially with the rise of megaconstellations and the ongoing commercialization of space, where satellites often serve multiple strategic and civil purposes rather than fitting precisely into a single category.