Techno-Economic Analysis of Long-Haul Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles: Right-Sizing of Components and Best Hydrogen Production Pathways to Achieve Cost Parity with Diesel Trucks

This study examines the cost-effectiveness of heavy-duty, long-haul fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs) compared to conventional diesel trucks from a fleet operator’s perspective, using a techno-economic approach. Initially, a fuel cell stack component was integrated into a quasi-static simulation model to evaluate various truck configurations in terms of performance and energy consumption over a representative highway cycle for long-haul missions. The resulting simulations provided inputs for calculating the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO), allowing a precise assessment of energy carrier cost, based on simulated truck energy consumption, that is a critical cost type in FCEV truck economic evaluation. The TCO model includes several cost categories, including purchase costs, energy carrier costs, maintenance, taxes and tolls, driver expenses, and residual value. To estimate fuel cell truck purchase costs, an in-depth cost breakdown of the fuel cell system was conducted, using comprehensive literature data to gain granular insights into component costs and to identify key hotspots for potential cost reductions in the future. This analysis covers both raw materials and manufacturing processes involved in fuel cell stack production. Results indicate that, for a given hydrogen production pathway, the TCO can vary by up to 13% depending on the truck configuration. Another key finding highlights the significant variability in hydrogen costs based on the production pathway, with truck TCO varying by up to 33% when switching from steam methane reforming to grid-based electrolysis. In conclusion, FCEVs for freight transport currently incur costs around 60% higher than conventional diesel trucks. However, this cost disparity is expected to decrease significantly, with TCO parity anticipated between 2030 and 2040. Achieving cost-effectiveness for FCEVs hinges on reducing the purchase cost of the truck, especially the fuel cell stack and hydrogen tank, as well as lowering the cost of hydrogen production and distribution. These components have been identified as the primary cost drivers, and targeted cost reductions in these areas will be essential to making FCEVs a competitive alternative to diesel in the heavy-duty sector.