Light Duty Transport Decarbonization - Technical-Economic model and assessment of decarbonization strategies for the European scenario

The purpose of this thesis is to create a mathematical model that correlates cost of vehicle’s production and Global Warming Potential (GWP). The first step consists in studying vehicle dynamics in order to understand which are the main parameters that impact on CO2 emissions during the vehicle Life-Cycle. Once individuated, for each parameter a curve Cost-GWP has been interpolated and then approximated to a function starting from literature data and a pre-existing CO2 assessment model. Once a specific mathematical function for every parameter has been obtained, an optimization problem has been set and resolved in order to find what combinations of points on the curves allow to achieve the minimum level of GWP possible for a single vehicle produced. In addition, the model has been extended to a hypothetical fleet composed of 100% BEV vehicles split into 2 groups: PC (Passenger Cars) and LCV (Light Commercial Vehicles), to study which group is more convenient to work on if the objective is reducing GWP. To not rely exclusively on a single source for the input data, several cross-checks have also been realized to test the coherence and highlight the possible differences. At the end, the results then have been briefly compared to alternative CO2 mitigation measures to evaluate their economic competitiveness. Overall, the parameters in order of profitability are Mass, Drag Coefficient and Rolling Resistance coefficient. Regarding the fleet, it is more convenient to spend resources on PC than LCV, because generally the percentual of PC in the mix is higher, but if the fleet was to be composed equally by PC and LCV, it would be more convenient to work on the latter. The cost obtained with this method and approach (€/tCO2e avoided) is generally economically competitive with other CO2 offset measures. Finally, a complete decarbonization scenario for a single vehicle has been assessed with the relative cost calculation.