Analisi della transizione energetica dello scenario italiano attraverso il software EnergyPLAN = Analysis of Italian energy transition pathways through EnergyPLAN software

Energy transition has shaped the latest European economic and environmental policies to decrease CO2 emissions and contain the effects of climate change: since most of the emissions come from the energy system, this is the main focus of the latest policies. The decarbonization of the system is projected to be obtained through the integration of new technologies to increase electricity and renewable fuels share in the total final consumption. To reach the goal, pathways are traced through scenarios written at a national or supranational level. These scenarios speculate over the energy demand, the diffusion of existing technologies, such as PV systems, wind turbines, heat pumps and electric vehicles and the evolution of new ones, such as storages and electrolyzers. The association representing the European National Transmission System Operators (ENTSO) published during 2022 the Ten-Year Network Development Plan in which two new scenarios are presented: the Distributed Energy scenario and the Global Ambition scenario. The purpose of the two scenarios is to explore and cover the uncertainty in the development of the energy system. Both the scenarios aim at achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 and at 55% emission reduction by 2030 with respect to the 1990 levels; the DE scenario assumes that authorities will incentivize the decentralization of the energy system through local initiatives of citizens, communities and businesses. The Global Ambition scenario hypothesizes the development of a wide range of low-carbon technologies, many of which centralized, to carry on the decarbonization; in this scenario the international exchange of energy is also essential. The Italian TSOs adapted the ENTSOs indications to their projections redacting the “Documento di Descrizione degli Scenari 2022” and, therefore, obtaining more accurate forecasts. This work focuses on the latest scenarios published for Italy with the intent to perform a thorough analysis: to do so the current (2019) and the scenarios (at 2030 and 2040) have been represented in a simulation software called EnergyPLAN that allows multisectoral analysis of exogenously defined energy systems with hourly resolution. Results show that the highest reduction in CO2 emissions can be obtained in the transport sector replacing diesel and gasoline powered vehicles with hydrogen and electric ones. In particular, the analysis revealed the major benefits given by the achievement of high levels of electrification of the end-use sectors obtained by increasing the penetration of heat pumps and electric vehicles in the respective sectors. The electrification process must be supported by replacing electricity produced from fossil fuel with renewable electricity, but the increase in electricity demand and in renewable production cause the system to be more susceptible to low production periods and leads to shortages that must be covered with fossil fuels.