Innovative solutions in the rooftop photovoltaic field: techno-economical feasibility and scenarios simulation

Nowadays, the energy transition imposes a huge increase in renewable power sources. So energy utilities, such as Edison S.p.A. is evaluating whether to increase the capacity installed of photovoltaic (PV) plants. Specifically, one of the sectors that this technology can reach is the rooftop application which presents specific aspects and problems. In this framework, this study aims to find technological devices that allow the increase of the techno-economical feasibility of rooftop PV plants. The work began with a literature review to find out the market trend in PV technology in order to establish which technology can become the golden standard in the near future. Furthermore, following the suggestion found in the literature, market research that identifies suitable panel models has been performed. The results of this part individuated 4 typologies of panels. Later, these devices have been tested on PV design software to compare their advantages with the actual standards in some case studies. Since the results of these simulations were not coherent, the individuation of a unique trend was difficult. As a result, the object of this thesis was to develop a numerical simulation tool that is able to generalize the problem, in order to get results that can statistically quantify the advantages of new possible solutions on actual PV panels used commercially. The model evaluates the capacity of these devices on rooftops with different sizes and obstacle dispositions, with the goal to find the one that maximizes the revenue of the investments. In fact, the model allows to compare the financial performance of the different plants and to calculate a number of key performance indicators (KPI) to establish which is the best investment for each type of rooftop. Subsequently, to obtain a forecast for the next future market, a sensitivity analysis on some of the input parameters of the model, such as the price of energy and the energy load of the buildings, has been performed. To conclude the work, an analysis of actual Italian residential buildings has been done, to quantify the possible market share that the technologies can reach and so the possible revenue induced by the increase of the market dimension. ii