Modelling the Italian power system: carbon free scenarios to 2050

Nowadays, national decarbonisation strategies and policies aim to address climate change, defining pathways for the transition towards a net-zero emissions energy system. In this energy transition, all sectors must contribute. However, the electricity sector has the greatest potential to decarbonise: a fully decarbonised power sector is expected by 2050. To support policymakers in planning the evolution of energy systems, optimisation modelling tools are needed to capture key challenges and opportunities. In this thesis, long-term scenarios for Italy are analysed to achieve the imposed targets of emission reduction for the power sector. An hourly resolution power system spanning three years is modelled. Future outlooks for 2030, 2040, 2050 are evaluated, optimising power generation and electricity storage investments by utilising greenfield planning and overnight investment methods. Electricity trading is allowed between neighbouring countries, and electric vehicles are also introduced into the model, resulting in a modification of the power demand profile. Results show that a low-carbon electricity system is possible and that emissions can be cut by 80-95% with respect to 1990 levels. This target achievement can be enabled by the high penetration of intermittent renewables coupled to the growing deployment of storage and technologies such as Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS), able to withstand the growing demand for electricity while meeting the stringent CO2 emission reduction targets. In addition, a scenario dedicated to the exploitation of nuclear energy is explored, revealing how this technology could prove a valuable aid in the fight against climate change. Future developments of the model could account for more detailed modelling of the transmission grid and take into account cross-sectoral interactions, investigating the development of low carbon pathways at a whole-energy system scale.